{"id":1982,"date":"2017-12-11T16:03:39","date_gmt":"2017-12-11T09:03:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/?p=1982"},"modified":"2017-12-11T16:03:39","modified_gmt":"2017-12-11T09:03:39","slug":"dien-bien-kinh-te-quyet-dinh-lo-trinh-binh-thuong-hoa-cstt-tai-my-va-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/vi\/dien-bien-kinh-te-quyet-dinh-lo-trinh-binh-thuong-hoa-cstt-tai-my-va-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a CSTT t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 EU"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Sau kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2008, NHTW c\u1ee7a hai \u0111\u1ea7u t\u00e0u kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c EU \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng CSTT phi truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 quy m\u00f4 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n. V\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c EU \u2013 chi\u1ebfm g\u1ea7n 1\/3 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf kh\u1ea3 quan xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u00ean h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 nh\u01b0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 IIP ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, PMI, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb v\u00e0 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i; l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t; th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p,\u2026. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec3 Fed v\u00e0 NHTW Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u – ECB l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch r\u00fat d\u1ea7n c\u00e1c g\u00f3i n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng. V\u00ec v\u1eady, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1edbm h\u01a1n EU, song g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y quan \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a trong \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh CSTT \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Fed v\u00e0 ECB nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a NHTW. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng l\u00e0m xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 EU \u0111ang c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng trong c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n v\u00e0 di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf?<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Sau kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a CSTT \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m chi ph\u00ed vay m\u01b0\u1ee3n v\u00e0 gia t\u0103ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cung \u1ee9ng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u00e1c TCTD trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. \u0110\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, C\u1ee5c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 – Fed \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh fed fund rate theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 nhanh ngay sau khi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7u c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 trong h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t n\u0103m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 5,25% xu\u1ed1ng giao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong kho\u1ea3ng 0 \u2013 0,25% v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2017. V\u00e0 n\u1ebfu nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1i giai \u0111o\u1ea1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00ec \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p b\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec trong m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kh\u00e1 d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m thi\u1ec3u nh\u1eefng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n

\"1\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p, FED c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u00e1c g\u00f3i k\u00edch th\u00edch ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 th\u00f4ng qua B\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u2013 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1edbi t\u00ean g\u1ecdi QE \u2013 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2009 \u2013 \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2014, FED \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 3 g\u00f3i QE[1]<\/a>, g\u00f3i cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n t\u1ea5t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014. V\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3, quy m\u00f4 b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a FED \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p 5 l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi x\u1ea3y ra kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 4,5 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 $ v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec cho \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m nay.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c b\u01a1m ti\u1ec1n ra n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c g\u00f3i QE \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh phi truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 cho \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n nay FED \u0111ang th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a CSTT. Fed \u0111\u00e3 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t c\u00e1c g\u00f3i QE v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014 v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 10\/2017 m\u1edbi tri\u1ec3n khai k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n quy m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2015. Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y nhanh hay ch\u1eadm ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn v\u00e0o di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00f3 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u kh\u1edfi s\u1eafc t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2015, tuy nhi\u00ean \u0111\u00e0 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc ch\u1ec9 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh t\u1eeb qu\u00fd III\/2016. Trong n\u0103m 2017, kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng qu\u00fd sau cao h\u01a1n qu\u00fd tr\u01b0\u1edbc, trong \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng qu\u00fd III \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 3,3% – m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb qu\u00fd III\/2014 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y. T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kh\u1ea3 quan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1. Khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c d\u1eabn d\u1eaft \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 PMI li\u00ean t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec \u1edf ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd tr\u00ean 54 \u0111i\u1ec3m. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u0169ng li\u00ean t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc cho th\u1ea5y ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u0111ang t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c\u00a0 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Nh\u1ecbp \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, l\u00e0m cho t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p hi\u1ec7n gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c 4,1% t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 4,8% h\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, thu nh\u1eadp b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf m\u1ed9t gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 0,7%. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3 b\u1ee9c tranh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng di\u1ec5n ra kh\u00e1 \u00f4n h\u00f2a, v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 1,8%, trong khi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng chung \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 2%. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 v\u1eady, nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t. Nh\u1eefng quan ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 nhu c\u1ea7u lao \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u00e9t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt l\u00e0 \u0111\u00fang \u0111\u1eafn, song \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m trung l\u1eadp v\u1ec1 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/p>\n

\"2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, c\u1ea3 Fed v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1ecf ra lo l\u1eafng v\u1ec1 g\u00f3i k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a s\u1eafp t\u1edbi. Nh\u01b0ng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 thu\u1ebf c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n chi ti\u00eau h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n chi cho \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, chi\u1ebfm t\u1edbi 80% quy m\u00f4 kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9. Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng \u0111\u00f3 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o \u00e1p l\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9. Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec v\u1eady, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng b\u1edfi v\u00ec h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng tin r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf s\u1ebd l\u00e0m cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf t\u0103ng l\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra kho\u1ea3n thu nh\u1eadp b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3n thu\u1ebf d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng 6 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00f3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh r\u1eb1ng v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n nhi\u1ec1u cho k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf \u1edf quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn. Trong n\u0103m 2017, th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t qu\u1ef9 li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 14% so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2016, \u0111\u1ea1t 666 t\u1ef7 USD, kho\u1ea3ng 3,5% GDP trong khi \u0111\u00f3 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n 20,4 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD, chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 105,4% GDP. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 r\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan t\u00e2m, Fed s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i quan s\u00e1t di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i t\u1ee9c tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft s\u00e1ch ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a Khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf ch\u00ednh<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0D\u01b0\u1edbi \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, kinh t\u1ebf khu v\u1ef1c EU c\u0169ng r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng suy tho\u00e1i. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00f3, NHTW ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (ECB) \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng CSTT nh\u1eb1m h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft, ECB \u0111\u00e3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c h\u1ea1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c 4,25% v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2008 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng x\u1ea3y ra xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 1% v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3\/2009 v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c h\u1ea1 xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 0% v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2016, m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec cho \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. Ngo\u00e0i ra, ECB c\u0169ng l\u00e0 NHTW \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u00e2m t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2014 \u0111\u1ec3 khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng cho vay \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u2013 0,4% trong khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay l\u00e0 0,25%.<\/p>\n

\"3\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng, ECB c\u0169ng ti\u1ebfp b\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 ch\u1eadm h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi Fed. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3, ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 1\/2015, ECB m\u1edbi ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0a ra cam k\u1ebft s\u1ebd mua v\u00e0o 60 t\u1ef7 EUR m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed3ng EUR cho \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 9\/2016. Sau \u0111\u00f3, ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gia h\u1ea1n th\u00eam 2 l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 4\/2017, th\u00e1ng 9\/2017 v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ebd c\u00f2n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ebft n\u0103m 2018.<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0V\u1edbi nh\u1eefng bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng CSTT m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd t\u1eeb ph\u00eda NHTW ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, kinh t\u1ebf khu v\u1ef1c EU \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ea7n c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n nh\u01b0ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ti\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n di\u1ec5n ra h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c ch\u1eadm ch\u1ea1p. Nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u chuy\u1ec3n bi\u1ebfn th\u1eadt s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf khu v\u1ef1c m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 di\u1ec5n ra t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2017 \u0111\u1ebfn nay. L\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean trong v\u00f2ng nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m sau kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf trong khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e3 duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u00ean 2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 trong 3 qu\u00fd li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp, trong \u0111\u00f3 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 2,5% c\u1ee7a qu\u00fd III l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2011 \u0111\u1ebfn nay.<\/p>\n

\"4\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0S\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u t\u1eeb di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn t\u00edch c\u1ef1c t\u1eeb c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. Khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c d\u1eabn d\u1eaft t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong n\u0103m 2017 khi ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 PMI t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u00e3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd tr\u00ean 55 \u0111i\u1ec3m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ebfn nay. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba c\u0169ng \u0111ang c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i khi doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u00e3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao tr\u00ean 2% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m \u0111\u1ebfn nay, trong \u0111\u00f3 th\u00e1ng 9 v\u1eeba qua doanh s\u1ed1 b\u00e1n l\u1ebb h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 3,7% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c trong v\u00f2ng 2 n\u0103m tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n

\"5\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a ECB l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c v\u1edbi M\u1ef9. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao tr\u00ean 2% trong 2 qu\u00fd g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u01b0ng \u1ee7y ban ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u1eabn \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i v\u1eadt l\u1ed9n v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao 8,9% v\u00e0 giao \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch l\u1edbn gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc trong kh\u1ed1i (\u0110\u1ee9c 3,6%, Ph\u00e1p l\u00e0 9,8%, \u00dd l\u00e0 11,2%, 17,1% t\u1ea1i T\u00e2y Ban Nha v\u00e0 21% t\u1ea1i Hy L\u1ea1p).<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u1eabn c\u00f2n c\u00e1ch xa m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0 0,9%\u00a0 trong khi \u00a0m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi l\u00e0 2%. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a c\u0169ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t l\u1edbn so v\u1edbi M\u1ef9. T\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ti\u1ec1n chung, nhi\u1ec1u n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean nh\u01b0 Ph\u00e1p, \u00dd, T\u00e2y Ban Nha chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng \u00bd GDP c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c EU v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec CSTK th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi Ph\u00e1p v\u00e0 T\u00e2y Ban Nha b\u1ecb y\u00eau c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch xu\u1ed1ng 3%\/GDP v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i ti\u1ebfn t\u1edbi c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng v\u1ec1 s\u1ed5 s\u00e1ch trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m t\u1edbi, c\u00f2n \u00dd th\u00ec ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ea3m n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng t\u1eeb kh\u1ed1i n\u1ee3 kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 158% GDP sau kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng. \u0110\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng l\u00fd do quan tr\u1ecdng cho quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1eabn c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i duy tr\u00ec CSTT n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n

\"6\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, CSTT n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u0169ng s\u1ebd gi\u00fap t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng EUR bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y cho ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u1edf nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 nhu c\u1ea7u n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba th\u1ea5p. B\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m hi\u1ec7n nay, c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c EU d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o l\u00e0 th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 400 t\u1ef7 USD \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u r\u00f2ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5, th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p t\u00edch c\u1ef1c cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p trong khu v\u1ef1c.Ngu\u1ed3n: Trading Economics<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian, quy m\u00f4 v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c tri\u1ec3n khai nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea3 M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 EU \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n CSTT si\u00eau n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf sau kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng. V\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n nay, ch\u00ednh di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 GDP, L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh,\u2026 l\u1ea1i tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o quan tr\u1ecdng cho \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh CSTT c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i n\u01b0\u1edbc. S\u1ef1 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a hai \u0111\u1ea7u t\u00e0u kinh t\u1ebf trong n\u0103m 2017 l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc cho quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a CSTT theo h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a m\u00e0 Fed v\u00e0 ECB \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1. Tuy nhi\u00ean, do hi\u1ec7n nay m\u1ed7i qu\u1ed1c gia v\u1eabn c\u00f2n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00ean l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u00edch cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng n\u00e0y c\u0169ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nhau. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1t huy \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a CSTK h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf, \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i t\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng, th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch, th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t c\u00e1n c\u00e2n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u quan ng\u1ea1i. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, ECB c\u0169ng ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m g\u00ec xa h\u01a1n n\u1ebfu t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn c\u00f2n xa so v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau, CSTK v\u1eabn \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh theo h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb trong n\u1ed9i kh\u1ed1i v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a ng\u1eebng ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t.<\/p>\n

Ths. Nguy\u1ec5n Thu Trang<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ths. Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Minh Ng\u1ecdc<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7n Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> Th\u00e1ng 12\/2008; th\u00e1ng 11\/2010; th\u00e1ng 9\/2012<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Sau kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2008, NHTW c\u1ee7a hai \u0111\u1ea7u t\u00e0u kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 khu v\u1ef1c EU \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng CSTT phi truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 quy m\u00f4 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n. V\u00e0 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[50],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1982"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1982"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1982\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1989,"href":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1982\/revisions\/1989"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/khoahocnganhang.org.vn\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}